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e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第58章

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买下一家具有高度争议的公司将会让公司在谈判过程中,会增加许多的难度,不管诉讼案件是不利或是有利于公司皆然,为了化解这个难题,KKR决定支付Arcata每股37美元再加上政府额外赔偿款的三分之二,作为购并的条件。
Appraising this arbitrage opportunity; we had to ask ourselves whether KKR would consummate the transaction since; among other things; its offer was contingent upon its obtainingatisfactory financing。?A clause of this kind is always dangerous for the seller: It offers an easy exit for a suitor whose ardor fades between proposal and marriage。 However; we were not particularly worried about this possibility because KKR past record for closing had been good。
在评估过这项投资机会之后,我们自问KKR能否真正完成这项交易的关键在于他们是否能够顺利取得融资,这对卖方来说永远是风险最高的一项条款,追求者在提出求婚到正式结婚的这段期间,要落跑是很容易的一件事,不过在这个案子我们却不太担心,原因在于KKR过去的记录还算不错。
We also had to ask ourselves what would happen if the KKR deal did fall through; and here we also felt reasonably fortable: Arcata management and directors had been shopping the pany for some time and were clearly determined to sell。 If KKR went away; Arcata would likely find another buyer; though of course; the price might be lower。
我们还必须扪心自问若是KKR真的失败会如何,在这点我们觉得还好,Arcata的董事会与经营阶层已经在外兜售好一段时间了,显示该公司却有决心要出售,如果KKR跑掉,Arcata一定还会再找新的买主,当然届时的价格可能会差一点。
Finally; we had to ask ourselves what the redwood claim might be worth。 Your Chairman; who can tell an elm from an oak; had no trouble with that one: He coolly evaluated the claim at somewhere between zero and a whole lot。
最后我们还必须问自己,那块红木林的价值到底有多少?坦白说我虽然个人连榆树跟橡木都分不出来,但对于这个问题我的处理方式倒很简单,反正就是介于零到一大笔钱之间就对了。
We started buying Arcata stock; then around 33。50; on September 30 and in eight weeks purchased about 400;000 shares; or 5% of the pany。 The initial announcement said that the 37。00 would be paid in January; 1982。 Therefore; if everything had gone perfectly; we would have achieved an annual rate of return of about 40% … not counting the redwood claim; which would have been frosting。
后来我们开始从九月开始以每股33。5元买进Arcata股票,八个礼拜之内总共买进40万股,约占该公司5%的股权,隔年一月第一次对外公布股东每股可以拿到37元,换算年投资报酬约为40%,这还不包含可以的红木林赔偿损失。
All did not go perfectly。 In December it was announced that the closing would be delayed a bit。 Nevertheless; a definitive agreement was signed on January 4。 Encouraged; we raised our stake; buying at around 38。00 per share and increasing our holdings to 655;000 shares; or over 7% of the pany。 Our willingness to pay up … even though the closing had been postponed … reflected our leaning toward  whole lot?rather than ero?for the redwoods。
然而过程中不太顺利,到了12月宣布交易可能会延后,尽管如果1月铁定会签约,受到这项鼓励,我们决定再加码以38元每股至65。5万股,约7%的股权,我们的努力终于获得回报,虽然有点拖延,但结果却相当令人满意。
Then; on February 25 the lenders said they were taking aecond look?at financing terms ?in view of the severely depressed housing industry and its impact on Arcata outlook。? The stockholders?meeting was postponed again; to April。 An Arcata spokesman said he id not think the fate of the acquisition itself was imperiled。?When arbitrageurs hear such reassurances; their minds flash to the old saying: he lied like a finance minister on the eve of devaluation。?
接着在2月25日融资银行说有鉴于房地产景气不佳,连带对Arcata的前景可能有所疑虑,故有关融资条件可能还要再谈,股东临时会也因此再度延期到四月举行,同时Arcata公司发言人表示他不认为购并案已触礁,但是当套利客听到这种重申时,脑中便闪过一句老话︰他说谎的方式就好象是即将面临汇率崩盘的财政部长一样。
On March 12 KKR said its earlier deal wouldn work; first cutting its offer to 33。50; then two days later raising it to 35。00。 On March 15; however; the directors turned this bid down and accepted another group offer of 37。50 plus one…half of any redwood recovery。 The shareholders okayed the deal; and the 37。50 was paid on June 4。
3月12日KKR宣布先前的约定无效,并将报价砍至33。5美元一股,两天后再调高至35美元,然而到了3月15日董事会拒绝了这项提议,并接受另一家集团37。5美元外加红木林一半的收益,股东会迅速通过这项交易,并于6月4日收到现金。
We received 24。6 million versus our cost of 22。9 million; our average holding period was close to six months。 Considering the trouble this transaction encountered; our 15% annual rate of return excluding any value for the redwood claim … was more than satisfactory。
总计我们花了近六个月的时间,投资2;290万美元,最后收回2;460万美元,但若是加计这项交易中间所经历的风风雨雨,则15%的年报酬率(未包含红木林潜在收益)还算令人满意。
But the best was yet to e。 The trial judge appointed two missions; one to look at the timbervalue; the other to consider the interest rate questions。 In January 1987; the first mission said the redwoods were worth 275。7 million and the second mission remended a pounded; blended rate of return working out to about 14%。
不过好戏还在后头,承审法院指派两个委员会来解决这项纷争,一个负责认定红木林的价值,一个则负责应该适用的利率,隔年1月委员会认定红木林的价值为2。75亿美元,适用的复利率应为14%。
In August 1987 the judge upheld these conclusions; which meant a net amount of about 600 million would be due Arcata。 The government then appealed。 In 1988; though; before this appeal was heard; the claim was settled for 519 million。 Consequently; we received an additional 29。48 per share; or about 19。3 million。 We will get another 800;000 or so in 1989。
到了八月法官裁定这项决议,这代表政府需要再支付高达6亿美元的赔偿金,联邦政府立刻提出上诉,而就在上诉即将宣判结果时,双方以5。19亿美元达成和解,因此我们又额外收到1;930万美元,相当于每股29。48美元的大红包,之后还可以再拿到80万美元的进帐。
Berkshire arbitrage activities differ from those of many arbitrageurs。 First; we participate in only a few; and usually very large; transactions each year。 Most practitioners buy into a great many deals perhaps 50 or more per year。 With that many irons in the fire; they must spend most of their time monitoring both the progress of deals and the market movements of the related stocks。 This is not how Charlie nor I wish to spend our lives。 (What the sense in getting rich just to stare at a ticker tape all day?)
Berkshire的套利活动与其它套利客有些不同,首先相较于一般套利客一年从事好几十个案子,每年我们只参与少数通常是大型的交易案,有这么多锅子同时在煮,他们必须花很多时间在监控交易的进度与相关股票的股价变动,这并不是查理跟我想要过的生活方式,(为了致富,整天盯着计算机屏幕到底有何意义?)
Because we diversify so little; one particularly profitable or unprofitable transaction will affect our yearly result from arbitrage far more than it will the typical arbitrage operation。 So far; Berkshire has not had a really bad experience。 But we will … and when it happens we will report the gory details to you。
也因为我们只专注在少数几个案子,所以一个特别好或是特别差的案子,可能会大大地影响到我们一整年的套利成绩,所幸到目前为止,Berkshire还没有遇到什么惨痛的经验,一旦发生我一定会一五一十的向各位报告。
The other way we differ from some arbitrage 
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