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uces。 It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer。
股价不振最主要的原因是悲观的情绪，有时是全面性的，有时则仅限于部份产业或是公司，我们很期望能够在这种环境下做生意，不是因为我们天生喜欢悲观，而是如此可以得到便宜的价格买进更多好的公司，乐观是理性投资人最大的敌人。
None of this means； however； that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular； a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow…the…crowd strategy。 What's required is thinking rather than polling。 Unfortunately； Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world： 〃Most men would rather die than think。 Many do。〃
当然以上所述并不代表不受欢迎或注意的股票或企业就是好的投资标的，反向操作有可能与群众心理一样的愚蠢，真正重要的是独立思考而不是投票表决，不幸的是Bertrand Russell对于人性的观察同样地也适用于财务投资之上，「大多数的人宁死也不愿意去思考！」。
Our other major portfolio change last year was large additions to our holdings of RJR Nabisco bonds； securities that we first bought in late 1989。 At yearend 1990 we had 440 million invested in these securities； an amount that approximated market value。 （As I write this； however； their market value has risen by more than 150 million。）
我们去年其它主要的投资组合的变动就是增加RJR Nabisco的债券，我们是在1989年开始买进这种有价证券，到了1990年底我们的投资金额约为4。4亿美元，与目前的市价相当（不过在撰写年报的同时，他们的市价已增加了1。5亿美元）。
Just as buying into the banking business is unusual for us； so is the purchase of below…investment…grade bonds。 But opportunities that interest us and that are also large enough to have a worthwhile impact on Berkshire's results are rare。 Therefore； we will look at any category of investment； so long as we understand the business we're buying into and believe that price and value may differ significantly。 （Woody Allen； in another context； pointed out the advantage of open…mindedness： 〃I can't understand why more people aren't bi…sexual because it doubles your chances for a date on Saturday night。〃）
就像我们很少买进银行股，同样地我们也很少买进投资等级以下的债券，不过能够引起我们兴趣的投资机会，同时规模大到足以对Berkshire有相当影响力的投资机会实在是不多，因此我们愿意尝试各种不同的投资工具，只要我们对于即将买进的投资标的有相当的了解，同时价格与价值有相当大的差距（伍迪艾伦也另一句台词用来形容开明的好处︰「我实在不了解为什么有那么多人排斥双性恋，人们在星期六夜晚至少可以有多一倍的机会能够约会？」）。
In the past we have bought a few below…investment…grade bonds with success； though these were all old…fashioned 〃fallen angels〃 … bonds that were initially of investment grade but that were downgraded when the issuers fell on bad times。 In the 1984 annual report we described our rationale for buying one fallen angel； the Washington Public Power Supply System。
在过去我们也曾成功地投资了好几次投资等级以下的债券，虽然他们多是传统上所谓的失翼的天使，意思是指原先发行时属于投资等级但后来因为公司出现问题而被降等，在1984年的年报中我们也曾经提到过买进华盛顿公用电力系统债券的原因。
A kind of bastardized fallen angel burst onto the investment scene in the 1980s … 〃junk bonds〃 that were far below investment… grade when issued。 As the decade progressed； new offerings of manufactured junk became ever junkier and ultimately the predictable oute occurred： Junk bonds lived up to their name。 In 1990 … even before the recession dealt its blows … the financial sky became dark with the bodies of failing corporations。
不过到了1980年代大量假冒的失翼的天使充斥着整个投资界，也就是所谓的垃圾债券，这些债券在发行时企业本身的信用评等就不佳，十几年下来垃圾债券越来越垃圾，最后真的变成名符其实的垃圾，到了1990年代在经济衰退引发债权危机之前，整个投资界的天空已布满着这些假冒失翼天使的尸体。
The disciples of debt assured us that this collapse wouldn't happen： Huge debt； we were told； would cause operating managers to focus their efforts as never before； much as a dagger mounted on the steering wheel of a car could be expected to make its driver proceed with intensified care。 We'll acknowledge that such an attention…getter would produce a very alert driver。 But another certain consequence would be a deadly … and unnecessary … accident if the car hit even the tiniest pothole or sliver of ice。 The roads of business are riddled with potholes； a plan that requires dodging them all is a plan for disaster。
迷信这些债券的门徒一再强调不可能发生崩盘的危机，钜额的债务会迫使公司经理人更专注于经营，就像是一位驾驶开着一辆轮胎上插着一只匕首的破车，大家可以确定这位驾驶一定会小心翼翼地开车，当然我们绝对相信这位驾驶一定会相当小心谨慎，但是另外却还有一个变量必须克服，那就是只要车子碰到一个小坑洞或是一小片雪就可能造成致命的车祸，而偏偏在商业的道路上，遍布着各种坑坑洞洞，一个要求必须避开所有坑洞的计画实在是一个相当危险的计画。
In the final chapter of The Intelligent Investor Ben Graham forcefully rejected the dagger thesis： 〃Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words； we venture the motto； Margin of Safety。〃 Forty…two years after reading that； I still think those are the right three words。 The failure of investors to heed this simple message caused them staggering losses as the 1990s
began。
在葛拉罕智能型投资人的最后一章中，很强烈地驳斥这种匕首理论，如果要将稳健的投资浓缩成三字箴言，那就是安全边际，在读到这篇文章的42年后，我仍深深相信这三个字，没能注意到这个简单原则的投资人在1990年代开始就会慢慢尝到损失的痛苦。
At the height of the debt mania； capital structures were concocted that guaranteed failure： In some cases； so much debt was issued that even highly favorable business results could not produce the funds to service it。 One particularly egregious 〃kill… 'em…at…birth〃 case a few years back involved the purchase of a mature television station in Tampa； bought with so much debt that the interest on it exceeded the station's gross revenues。 Even if you assume that all labor； programs and services were donated rather than purchased； this capital structure required revenues to explode … or else the station was doomed to go broke。 （Many of the bonds that financed the purchase were sold to now…failed savings and loan associations； as a taxpayer； you are picking up the tab for this folly。）
在债务恐慌最高点的时候，资本结构注定导致失败的发生，有些公司的融资杠杆高到即使是再好的企业也无法负担，有一个特别惨、一出生就夭折的案例，就是一个坦帕湾地方电视台的购并案，这个案子一年的利息负担甚至还超过他一整年的营收，也就是说即使所有的人工、节目与服务都不须成本，且营收也能有爆炸性的成长，这家电视台还是会步上倒闭的命运，（许多债券都是由现在大多倒闭的储贷机构买进，所以身为纳税义务人的你，等于间接替这些愚蠢的行为买单）。
All of this seems impossible now。 When these misdeeds were done； however； dagger…selling investment bankers pointed to the 〃scholarly〃 research of academics； which reported that over the years the higher interest rates received from low…grade bonds had more than pensated for their higher rate of default。 Thus； said the friendly salesmen； a diversified portfolio of junk bonds would produce greater net returns than would a portfolio of high…grade bonds。 （Beware of past…performance 〃proofs〃 in finance： If history books were the key to riches； the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians。）
现在看起来这种