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们处分掉,根据逻辑推论,这种方法还要求投资机构在股价反弹时再把他们买回来,一想到有这么多的资金,掌握在整天沉溺在爱莉丝梦游仙境般的经理人手中,也难怪股票市场会有如此不寻常的表现。
Moves like that; however; are what portfolio insurance tells a pension fund or university to make when it owns a portion of enterprises such as Ford or General Electric。 The less these panies are being valued at; says this approach; the more vigorously they should be sold。 As a 〃logical〃 corollary; the approach mands the institutions to repurchase these panies … I'm not making this up … once their prices have rebounded significantly。 Considering that huge sums are controlled by managers following such Alice…in…Wonderland practices; is it any surprise that markets sometimes behave in aberrational fashion?
然而许多评论家在观察最近所发生的事时,归纳出一个不正确的结论,他们喜欢说由于股票市场掌握在这些投资大户手上,所以小额投资人根本一点机会也没有,这种结论实在是大大地错误,不管资金多寡,这样的市场绝对有利于任何投资者,只要他能够坚持自己的投资理念,事实上由手握重金的基金经理人所造成的市场波动,反而使得真正的投资人有更好的机会可以去贯彻其明智的投资行动,只要他在面临股市波动时,不会因为财务或心理因素而被迫在不当的时机出脱手中持股,他就很难会受到伤害。
Many mentators; however; have drawn an incorrect conclusion upon observing recent events: They are fond of saying that the small investor has no chance in a market now dominated by the erratic behavior of the big boys。 This conclusion is dead wrong: Such markets are ideal for any investor … small or large … so long as he sticks to his investment knitting。 Volatility caused by money managers who speculate irrationally with huge sums will offer the true investor more chances to make intelligent investment moves。 He can be hurt by such volatility only if he is forced; by either financial or psychological pressures; to sell at untoward times。
在Berkshire过去几年,我们在股票市场实在没有什么可以发挥的地方,在十月的那段期间,有几支股票跌到相当吸引我们的价位,不过我们没有能够在他们反弹之前买到够多的股份,在1987年底除了永久的持股与短期的套利之外,我们并没有新增任何主要的股票投资组合(指5;000万美元以上),不过你大可以放心,一旦市场先生一定会给我们机会的时候,我们一定会好好把握住的。
At Berkshire; we have found little to do in stocks during the past few years。 During the break in October; a few stocks fell to prices that interested us; but we were unable to make meaningful purchases before they rebounded。 At yearend 1987 we had no major mon stock investments (that is; over 50 million) other than those we consider permanent or arbitrage holdings。 However; Mr。 Market will offer us opportunities … you can be sure of that … and; when he does; we will be willing and able to participate。
至于我们主要的资金避风港…中期的免税债券,在去年我已经解释过其特点,虽然在1987年间我们也有进出,但整个部位变化不大,总金额约在9亿美元左右,大部分的债券是属于1986年税务改革法案中祖父级的债券,不同于现在保险公司新买进的债券,他们享有百分之百免税的优惠。
o In the meantime; our major parking place for money is medium…term tax…exempt bonds; whose limited virtues I explained in last year's annual report。 Though we both bought and sold some of these bonds in 1987; our position changed little overall; holding around 900 million。 A large portion of our bonds are 〃grandfathered〃 under the Tax Reform Act of 1986; which means they are fully tax…exempt。 Bonds currently purchased by insurance panies are not。
当作短期约当现金的替代品,中期免税债券的表现还算不错,他们贡献了不少额外的投资报酬,且目前的价值也略高于我们当初投资的成本,但不管之后他们的市价高或低,只要我们找到更好的投资机会,我们随时都有可能把他们给处分掉。
As an alternative to short…term cash equivalents; our medium…term tax…exempts have … so far served us well。 They have produced substantial extra ine for us and are currently worth a bit above our cost。 Regardless of their market price; we are ready to dispose of our bonds whenever something better es along。
我们持续避免去碰长期债券(也有可能因为没有对中期免税债券保持距离而犯下大错),债券没有比他们表彰的货币来得好,在过去十年以即可预见的未来,我们看不出我们会对美国债券有太大的兴趣。
o We continue to have an aversion to long…term bonds (and may be making a serious mistake by not disliking medium…term bonds as well)。 Bonds are no better than the currency in which they are denominated; and nothing we have seen in the past year … or past decade … makes us enthusiastic about the long…term future of U。S。 currency。
我们钜额的贸易逆差,使得我们必须面临许多不同形式的支票帐单,这包含外国人持有的美国政府与企业公债、银行存款等,以惊人的速度累积成长,一开始我们的政府所采取的方式,就像是欲望街车的角色布兰奇所说的,我总是依赖陌生人的同情心而活,当然本案的陌生人依靠的主要是债务人的可靠性,虽然贬值的美元也让他们必须付出高昂的代价。
Our enormous trade deficit is causing various forms of 〃claim checks〃 … U。S。 government and corporate bonds; bank deposits; etc。 … to pile up in the hands of foreigners at a distressing rate。 By default; our government has adopted an approach to its finances patterned on that of Blanche DuBois; of A Streetcar Named Desire; who said; 〃I have always depended on the kindness of strangers。〃 In this case; of course; the 〃strangers〃 are relying on the integrity of our claim checks although the plunging dollar has already made that proposition expensive for them。
外国人对我们的信心可能有点所托非人,因为当要付的支票帐单持续的增加,而债务人又能够无限制地主导自己的购买能力时,美钞发行人增加流通货币来稀释其货币价值的情况铁定会发生,对于债务国政府来说,通货膨胀这项武器就好象是经济战争中威力强大的氢弹一样,很少有国家可以让全世界充斥着以自己货币计价的债券,不过由于我们国家过去不错的财政记录,使得我们能够打破这项限制,只是这样的宽容使得我们通膨的压力只会增加不会减少,而一旦我们屈服于这样的压力,不只是持有美国债权的外国人遭殃,连带的我们也会受到影响。
The faith that foreigners are placing in us may be misfounded。 When the claim checks outstanding grow sufficiently numerous and when the issuing party can unilaterally determine their purchasing power; the pressure on the issuer to dilute their value by inflating the currency bees almost irresistible。 For the debtor government; the weapon of inflation is the economic equivalent of the 〃H〃 bomb; and that is why very few countries have been allowed to swamp the world with debt denominated in their own currency。 Our past; relatively good record for fiscal integrity has let us break this rule; but the generosity accorded us is likely to intensify; rather than relieve; the eventual pressure on us to inflate。 If we do succumb to that pressure; it won't be just the foreign holders of our claim checks who will suffer。 It will be all of us as well。
当然在债务问题失控之前,美国政府也会试着采取一些方法来抑制贸易逆差, (有关于这点,下滑的美元汇率或许会有帮助,只是同样地它又会造成另一种伤害),目前我们政府的做法跟乱世佳人里郝思佳的态度差不多一样,「明天再想办法吧!」,而几乎无可避免的对于财政问题的处理耽搁将会造成通货膨胀的后果。
Of course; the U。S。 may take steps to stem our trade deficit well before our position as a net debtor gets out of hand。 (In that respect; the falling dollar will help; though unfortunately it will hurt in other ways。) Nevertheless; our government's behavior in this test of